Bernie Sanders: Rally, May 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his Detroit rally?
Polymarket What will Bernie Sanders say in Detroit?
Markets
45 words · 27 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | Yes | 83%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 80%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Paycheck to Paycheck | Yes | 76%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Authoritarian / Authoritarianism | Yes | 74%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 74%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | Yes | 72%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 72%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 69%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 69%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Amazon / Bezos | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Billion / Billionaire 5+ times | Yes | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Vermont / Vermonter | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Amazon / Jeff / Bezos | Yes | 61%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 60%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 60%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie | Yes | 58%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Netanyahu | Yes | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 56%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zillion / Zillionaire | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Campaign | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Working Family | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| One Percent / One Percenter 3+ times | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 30%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 56%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Pension | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tuition | No | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| ICE 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Legislation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moratorium | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate | No | 48%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| King | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | No | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| DHS / TSA | No | 26%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 19%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26MAY03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP