Bernie Sanders: Rally, Jul 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his Minneapolis Rally?
Polymarket What will Bernie Sanders say during his Minneapolis Rally?
Markets
31 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 82%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 81%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | 80%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Netanyahu | Yes | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | Yes | 71%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Vermont / Vermonter | Yes | 69%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 66%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Bezos | Yes | 64%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | 63%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 62%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Middle Class / Working Class | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 55%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Poverty | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 2+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 44%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Greed / Greedy | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 36%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 27%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 49%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Percent / Percenter 11+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bernie | No | 47%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Tuition | No | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Wall Street | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trillionaire | No | 29%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 26%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | 22%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 19%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | 18%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| KXBERNIEMENTION-26JUL20- | Pending resolution | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26JUL20B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP