What is the probability “Nuclear” is said on World News Tonight next time?

40%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Nuclear” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Nuclear” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Nuclear” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 22, 2026 (40%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 12, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 1. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 23, 2026) is not counted.

40%from settlement history only · n=5counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 02:38 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Nuclear

Probability: 40% · n=5
Settled: 2/5 (40%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 16, 2026 · Oct 16, 2026 · 17:15In transcript

…me, President Trump not ruling out striking Iran with the so-called mother of all bombs, or Moab, the largest non-nuclear weapon in the U.S. arsenal.