Will “Farm / Farmer” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Farm / Farmer” was said on The Last Word in 3 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2026 (60%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Farm / Farmer
- Probability
- 50% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 2 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
6 counted; 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Farm / Farmer |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Farm / Farmer | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
Questions
- How often is “Farm / Farmer” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Farm / Farmer” was said on The Last Word in 3 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2026 (60%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
- What is the probability “Farm / Farmer” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Farm / Farmer’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/farm-or-farmer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=farm%20%2F%20farmer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP