Face the Nation (CBS), September 6, 2026
On the Sep 6, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 7 of the 14 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
14 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 12 | 28 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 5 | 9 | ✓ | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 4 | 17 | ✓ | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 3 | 23 | ✓ | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 2 | 10 | ✓ | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 1 | 7 | ✓ | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Solar / Windmill | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | 0 | 16 | ✓ | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
17 matches for “Election”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…are enjoying their last unofficial weekend of summer. But with the midterm elections now less than two months away, voters want answers on when the…
…an unelected and arguably illegitimate government that has not committed to holding elections, which the U.S. says are a priority? How can you instill confidence…
But just to button that up, you said there will be elections. Do you have a timeline for that? Does this deal with the current…
…going on right now between the former leaders of the Parliament, the election that was the last sort of fair election in 2015. The opposition…
…to have rule of law. We need to release the political prisoners and get the conditions for free and fair elections. But those are coming.
Where the listed words were said
…out a change in regulations that'll allow American refiners to produce more gasoline and diesel with their existing equipment. So, seeing demand likely go down…
…we can do is add supply in Alaska, in the Gulf, in Venezuela, everywhere we can, and continue to grow the rate of exports from…
…refineries and coal plants closed. You could summarize their energy and climate policies in two words, expensive energy. President Trump has swum against that tide.
…in the region right now is to stop the export of any Iranian crude or crude-related products, natural gas, whatever. We are strangling their economy…
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