Will Keir Starmer say “Reform”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer did not say “Reform” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 27, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 PMQs; Apr 22, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Keir Starmer
Reform
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 PMQs); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…by political colleagues in the Conservative party—her party for many years—and in Reform as well. That is why one of the first things I did…
…and affordable homes in Luton and Bedfordshire. Our Social Housing Bill will reform right to buy to deliver even more social houses. That is a…
…able to support. It is a shame that in order to chase Reform votes, they have changed their mind, and that we do not have…
When the Conservatives were in office, they did not reform welfare spending or invest in our armed services. The right hon. Lady sets out that…
…But the £5 million question still remains: why is the leader of Reform dodging questions about his donations, and why did he keep it secret…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | Reform |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Keir Starmer say “Reform”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer did not say “Reform” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 27, 2025.
- What is the probability Keir Starmer says “Reform” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Keir Starmer: ‘Reform’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/keir-starmer/words/reform (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=keir-starmer&word=reform · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=keir-starmer&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP