Will Keir Starmer say “Hormuz”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer did not say “Hormuz” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 24, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 PMQs; Apr 22, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Keir Starmer
Hormuz
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 PMQs); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…plans for the coalition for reassurance as soon as the strait of Hormuz is open. That is what we are doing to lead. We are…
…continues with France and other countries to help get the strait of Hormuz open, once the ceasefire holds. We have instructed the Competition and Markets…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Hormuz |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Keir Starmer say “Hormuz”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Keir Starmer did not say “Hormuz” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Keir Starmer says “Hormuz” next time?
- 26%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Keir Starmer: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/keir-starmer/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=keir-starmer&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=keir-starmer&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP