Donald Trump: Interview, Aug 15, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Hannity interview on August 15?
Markets
11 words · 1 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times | Yes | 45%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late / Fed | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden's war | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 42%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| American soldier | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Armenia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bush | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hack / Hacking | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shifty Schiff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=107 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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