Will Scott Bessent say “Trade deficit”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent did not say “Trade deficit” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 15, 2025.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
Trade deficit
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we're going to be building on those gains in terms of the trade deficit dropping with China. Since last summer, there's been great stability in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | Trade deficit |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “Trade deficit”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent did not say “Trade deficit” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Trade deficit” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Trade deficit’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/trade-deficit (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=trade%20deficit · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP