Political debates, Oct 23, 2025
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the NYC Mayoral Debate?
Markets
41 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rikers | Yes | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless | Yes | 72%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Subway | Yes | 69%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Defund | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Eric / Adams | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kathy / Hochul | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Puppet | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Florida | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Infrastructure | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minimum Wage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Misdemeanor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MTA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| One Percent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prostitution | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Protest | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taxi | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Italian | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ackman | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gaza | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lie | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Amazon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ebike / E-Bike | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grocery 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marijuana / Weed | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pizza | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Capitalist / Capitalism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Czar | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Horse | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Luigi / Mangione | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woke | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Congestion | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-25OCT23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP