Will Markwayne Mullin say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Markwayne Mullin said “Fraud” at 1 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (12%), most recently on Jun 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Markwayne Mullin
Fraud
- Probability
- 39% · n=8
- Settled
- 1/8 (12%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Markwayne Mullin yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fraud |  Kalshi | No |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No |
| May 18, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 12, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No |
| May 3, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Fraud | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Markwayne Mullin say “Fraud”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Markwayne Mullin said “Fraud” at 1 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (12%), most recently on Jun 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Markwayne Mullin says “Fraud” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Markwayne Mullin: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/markwayne-mullin/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=markwayne-mullin&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=markwayne-mullin&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP