Markwayne Mullin: Press conference, Jul 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Markwayne Mullin say during his election security press conference?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Georgia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pennsylvania | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 18%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 19%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26JUL17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP