Markwayne Mullin: Press conference, Jun 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Markwayne Mullin say during his press conference?
Markets
13 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Political Violence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mask / Masked | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26JUN01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP