Markwayne Mullin: Hearing, May 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Markwayne Mullin say during the Oversight Hearing on Homeland Security?
Markets
16 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deport / Deportation | No | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26MAY18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP