Markwayne Mullin: Press conference, Apr 7, 2026
Kalshi What will Markwayne Mullin say during his press conference?
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deport / Deportation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FEMA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Security | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TSA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR07B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP