Markwayne Mullin: Hearing, Mar 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Markwayne Mullin say during his DHS Confirmation Hearing?
Markets
18 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deportation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kristi / Noem | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Homan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mask / Masked | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Renee / Pretti | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-MARK26MAR18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP