Markwayne Mullin: Interview, Sep 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News: Saturday in America?
Markets
13 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Florida | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPERSONMENTION-26SEP19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP