Markwayne Mullin: Hearing, Jun 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Markwayne Mullin say during the DHS Budget Hearing?
Markets
15 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Body Cam / Body Camera | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mask / Masked | No | 21%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 19%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP