Fox News (interviews): Episode, May 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Markwayne Mullin say during his Fox News interview?
Markets
11 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 67%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 44%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 26%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 21%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 19%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXFOXNEWSMENTION-26MAY12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP