Will Kathy Hochul say “ICE / National Guard”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kathy Hochul said “ICE / National Guard” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 9, 2026 (60%), most recently on Feb 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kathy Hochul
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 53% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Kathy Hochul yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 6, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 20, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Kathy Hochul say “ICE / National Guard”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kathy Hochul said “ICE / National Guard” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 9, 2026 (60%), most recently on Feb 9, 2026.
- What is the probability Kathy Hochul says “ICE / National Guard” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kathy Hochul: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kathy-hochul/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kathy-hochul&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kathy-hochul&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP