Kathy Hochul: Speech, Jan 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Kathy Hochul say during the State of the State Address?
Markets
19 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Subway / MTA | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Buffalo / Bills | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Congestion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Housing / Home | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mayor / New York City | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Upstate / Up State | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kalshi / Prediction Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax on Tips | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOCHULMENTION-26JAN14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP