Josh Shapiro: Speech, Feb 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Josh Shapiro say during his State of the State Address?
Markets
13 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minimum Wage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New Jersey | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hydrogen | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax Cut | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXGOVERNORMENTION-26FEB04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP