Will Josh Shapiro say “2028 / Campaign”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Josh Shapiro said “2028 / Campaign” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 8, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Josh Shapiro
2028 / Campaign
- Probability
- 42% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Josh Shapiro say “2028 / Campaign”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Josh Shapiro said “2028 / Campaign” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 8, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Josh Shapiro says “2028 / Campaign” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Josh Shapiro: ‘2028 / Campaign’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/josh-shapiro/words/2028-or-campaign (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=josh-shapiro&word=2028%20%2F%20campaign · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=josh-shapiro&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP