Will Josh Shapiro say “ICE / National Guard”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Josh Shapiro said “ICE / National Guard” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Josh Shapiro
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 57% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 30, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Josh Shapiro say “ICE / National Guard”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Josh Shapiro said “ICE / National Guard” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Josh Shapiro says “ICE / National Guard” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Josh Shapiro: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/josh-shapiro/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=josh-shapiro&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=josh-shapiro&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP