Will Josh Shapiro say “Republican”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Josh Shapiro said “Republican” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 9, 2025 (50%), most recently on Apr 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Josh Shapiro
Republican
- Probability
- 42% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Republican |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Republican | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Republican | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Republican | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Josh Shapiro say “Republican”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Josh Shapiro said “Republican” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 9, 2025 (50%), most recently on Apr 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Josh Shapiro says “Republican” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Josh Shapiro: ‘Republican’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/josh-shapiro/words/republican (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=josh-shapiro&word=republican · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=josh-shapiro&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP