Will JD Vance say “300 Billion”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “300 Billion” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 18, 2026.
Of the last 5 press briefings we have transcripts for (Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
300 Billion
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 press briefings
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that the Iranians get all these benefits. You will hear things about $300 billion or $24 billion, or this or that number of money --…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 300 Billion |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “300 Billion”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “300 Billion” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 18, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “300 Billion” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘300 Billion’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/300-billion (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=300%20billion · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP