Will Gavin Newsom say “Fire / Wildfire”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Fire / Wildfire” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 23, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Gavin Newsom
Fire / Wildfire
- Probability
- 42% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Fire / Wildfire |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Fire / Wildfire | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Gavin Newsom say “Fire / Wildfire”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Fire / Wildfire” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 23, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Fire / Wildfire” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Fire / Wildfire’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/fire-or-wildfire (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=fire%20%2F%20wildfire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP