Bernie Sanders: Rally, Oct 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his rally in Gainesville?
Markets
26 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 82%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Break | Yes | 72%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 72%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 70%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 5+ times | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class | Yes | 64%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Netanyahu | Yes | 58%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Housing / Rent | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Climate | Yes | 53%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 51%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Zillion / Zillionaire | Yes | 51%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie | Yes | 36%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 35%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 18%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 83%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | 61%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 58%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| DeSantis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Student Loan / Student Debt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 44%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 29%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Trillionaire | No | 16%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | 14%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26OCT18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP