Bernie Sanders: Rally, Oct 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his rally in Houston?
Markets
26 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 86%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Break | Yes | 84%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 82%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 78%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class | Yes | 78%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Housing / Rent | Yes | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 63%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | 59%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 54%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie | Yes | 49%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trillionaire | Yes | 21%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 5+ times | No | 83%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Netanyahu | No | 65%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 65%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 62%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | No | 59%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 53%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Abbott | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Security | No | 45%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Zillion / Zillionaire | No | 43%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 37%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 34%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Student Loan / Student Debt | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 22%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | 11%n=24 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:36 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26OCT20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP