Bernie Sanders: Rally, Oct 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his Fighting Oligarchy rally?
Markets
22 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | 83%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | Yes | 79%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 79%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Netanyahu | Yes | 72%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Yes | 71%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 70%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 65%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Break | Yes | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 39%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 26%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 68%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Zillion / Zillionaire | No | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 47%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | No | 45%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie | No | 36%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Trillionaire | No | 21%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 19%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | 16%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26OCT04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP