Bernie Sanders: Rally, Oct 27, 2025
Kalshi What will Bernie say during the New York Is Not For Sale Rally?
Markets
22 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tuition | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oligarch | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Paycheck to Paycheck | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| One Percent | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Freeze | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Union | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 66%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Capitalism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Endorse / Endorsement | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Genocide | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rent Control | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Dictator | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 21%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-25OCT27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP