Bernie Sanders: Rally, Oct 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his rally in El Paso?
Markets
24 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 86%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Break | Yes | 83%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 5+ times | Yes | 81%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 80%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 77%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class | Yes | 76%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 63%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Netanyahu | Yes | 62%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 61%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 59%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | Yes | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie | Yes | 48%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Trillionaire | Yes | 13%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 64%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | 58%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 58%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Abbott | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Security | No | 49%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 42%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 36%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 23%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | 11%n=23 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26OCT19B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP