What is the probability Abigail Spanberger says “Democracy” next time?

49%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Abigail Spanberger say “Democracy”?

Name: Abigail Spanberger: “Democracy” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Abigail Spanberger said “Democracy” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 25, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

49%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 10:41 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Abigail Spanberger

Democracy

Probability: 49% · n=2
Settled: 1/2 (50%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Abigail Spanberger yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Abigail Spanberger say during March on Washington? · settled yes

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What will Abigail Spanberger say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

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What will Abigail Spanberger say during the SOTU Democratic response? · settled no

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Mention: Abigail Spanberger on The Last Word · not listed

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What will Abigail Spanberger say during The Late Show with Stephen Colbert? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Aug 28, 2026	Democracy	Kalshi	Yes
Feb 25, 2026	Democracy	Kalshi	No

Questions

How often does Abigail Spanberger say “Democracy”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Abigail Spanberger said “Democracy” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 25, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 28, 2026.
What is the probability Abigail Spanberger says “Democracy” next time?: 49%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Abigail Spanberger: ‘Democracy’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/abigail-spanberger/words/democracy (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=abigail-spanberger&word=democracy · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=abigail-spanberger&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP