What is the probability Abigail Spanberger says “ICE / Border” next time?

30%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Abigail Spanberger say “ICE / Border”?

Name: Abigail Spanberger: “ICE / Border” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Abigail Spanberger did not say “ICE / Border” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

30%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 18:24 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Abigail Spanberger

ICE / Border

Probability: 30% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Abigail Spanberger yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Abigail Spanberger say during March on Washington? · settled no

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What will Abigail Spanberger say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

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What will Abigail Spanberger say during the SOTU Democratic response? · settled no

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Mention: Abigail Spanberger on The Last Word · not listed

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What will Abigail Spanberger say during The Late Show with Stephen Colbert? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Aug 28, 2026	ICE / Border	Kalshi	No
Feb 25, 2026	ICE / Border	Kalshi	No

Questions

How often does Abigail Spanberger say “ICE / Border”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Abigail Spanberger did not say “ICE / Border” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 25, 2026.
What is the probability Abigail Spanberger says “ICE / Border” next time?: 30%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Abigail Spanberger: ‘ICE / Border’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/abigail-spanberger/words/border-or-ice (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=abigail-spanberger&word=border%20%2F%20ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=abigail-spanberger&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP