Abigail Spanberger: Speech, Feb 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Abigail Spanberger say during the SOTU Democratic response?
Markets
15 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chaos | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Home / Housing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / Border | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSPANBERGERMENTION-26FEB25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP