What is the probability “Mystery Box” is said on MrBeast next time?

17%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Mystery Box” be said on MrBeast next time?

Name: MrBeast: “Mystery Box” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Mystery Box” was not said on MrBeast at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 17% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 6 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 22, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026), 5 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

17%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
Streak: not said the last 3 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 09:01 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

MrBeast

Mystery Box

Probability: 17% · n=3
Settled: 0/3 (0%)
Last 6 episodes: said in 0 of 5 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video? · not listed

Open the appearance