MrBeast: Episode, May 17, 2026
Polymarket What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?
Markets
28 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prize | Yes | 45%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Eliminate / Eliminated | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strategy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dollar 10+ times | Yes | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Island | Yes | 20%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Chandler | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| MrBeast | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Feastables | No | 38%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Chocolate | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla / Lamborghini | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Briefcase / Suitcase | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cash | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Copyright | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold / Golden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Monetize | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Red Line | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sponsor / Sponsored / Sponsoring | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wife | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Cup | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Apple | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Calendar | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Karl | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mystery Box | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Super Mario Galaxy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Jet | No | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Donate / Donated | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-mrbeast-say-during-his-next-youtube-video-268 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP