Will “Iran / Iranian” be said on The Weeknight next time?

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on The Weeknight in 2 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 6, 2026 (25%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 16, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

34%from settlement history only · n=8counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-weeknight&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Weeknight

Iran / Iranian

Probability
34% · n=8
Settled
2/8 (25%)
Last 5 episodes
said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Weeknight? · not said

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What will Mark Kelly say during The Weeknight? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.

Mark Kellyguest44:41In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Cory Booker say during The Weeknight? · not said

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What will Andy Beshear say during The Weeknight? · not said

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What will Abdul El-Sayed say during The Weeknight? · not listed

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What will Katie Hobbs say during MS NOW: The Weeknight? · not listed

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What will Raphael Warnock say during MS NOW: The Weeknight? · not listed

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What will Wes Moore say during The Weeknight? · not listed

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What will Adam Schiff say during MS NOW: The Weeknight? · not listed

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What will Jacky Rosen say during The Weeknight? · settled no

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 8 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 19, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Sep 29, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes1
Sep 23, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Sep 22, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Apr 27, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Apr 14, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Mar 7, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo–
Mar 6, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–

Questions

How often is “Iran / Iranian” said on The Weeknight?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on The Weeknight in 2 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 6, 2026 (25%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026.
What is the probability “Iran / Iranian” is said on The Weeknight next time?
34%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Weeknight: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-weeknight/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-weeknight&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-weeknight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP