Michael Barr: Keynote, Sep 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Fed Gov Barr say during his housing affordability address?
Markets
14 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| CRA / Community Reinvestment Act | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation / Inflationary | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Labor / Employment / Unemployment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mortgage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rent / Rental | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zoning / Permit / Permitting | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Financial Crisis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBARRMENTION-26SEP23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP