Michael Barr: Speech, Apr 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Fed Gov Barr say during his AI speech?
Markets
13 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fintech | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Generative AI / GenAI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Security / Cybersecurity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Autonomous | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hallucinate / Hallucination | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Layoff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBARRMENTION-26APR01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP