Michael Barr: Speech, Sep 29, 2026
Kalshi What will Fed Gov Barr say during remarks on the state of the U.S. Economy?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation / Inflationary | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Labor / Employment / Unemployment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mortgage | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Recession | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Productivity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Balance Sheet | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Financial Crisis | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBARRMENTION-26SEP29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP