Christopher Waller: Keynote, Oct 22, 2025
Kalshi What will Fed Gov Waller say during the Payments Innovation Conference?
Markets
12 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank / Banking | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cybersecurity / Cyber Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Labor | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Regulation / Regulatory | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Genius Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Automation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ChatGPT / Chat GPT | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Monetary Policy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Privacy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWALLERMENTION-25OCT22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP