Christopher Waller: Keynote, May 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Fed Gov Waller say during his discussion At the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulation / Regulatory | Yes | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 21%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Productivity | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Automation / Autonomous | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rate Cut / Cut Rate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWALLERMENTION-26MAY19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP