Christopher Waller: Keynote, Oct 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook remarks?
Markets
16 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Labor / Job | Yes | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Productivity | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Independent / Independence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Monetary Policy | Yes | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stablecoin | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Balance Sheet | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Warsh | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Recession | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWALLERMENTION-26OCT08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP