Christopher Waller: Keynote, Nov 13, 2025
Kalshi What will Fed Gov Waller say during his discussion on payments?
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Labor / Job | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stablecoin | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockchain | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cybersecurity / Cyber Security | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Genius Act | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Monetary Policy | No | 19%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWALLERMENTION-25NOV13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP