Will Christopher Waller say “Tariff”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Christopher Waller said “Tariff” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 72% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

72%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=christopher-waller&word=tariff

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Christopher Waller

Tariff

Probability
72% · n=4
Settled
3/4 (75%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Christopher Waller yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook remarks? · settled yes

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during remarks on AI? · settled no

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook? · settled yes

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during his discussion At the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy? · settled yes

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during his discussion on payments? · not listed

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during the Payments Innovation Conference? · not listed

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during speech on Artificial Intelligence? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 8, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Oct 1, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Sep 3, 2026TariffKalshiYes
May 19, 2026TariffKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Christopher Waller say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Christopher Waller said “Tariff” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026.
What is the probability Christopher Waller says “Tariff” next time?
72%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Christopher Waller: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/christopher-waller/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=christopher-waller&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=christopher-waller&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP