Will Christopher Waller say “Fraud”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Christopher Waller said “Fraud” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 24% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

24%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=christopher-waller&word=fraud

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Christopher Waller

Fraud

Probability
24% · n=4
Settled
1/4 (25%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Christopher Waller yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook remarks? · not listed

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during remarks on AI? · settled no

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook? · not listed

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during his discussion At the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy? · not listed

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during his discussion on payments? · settled no

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during the Payments Innovation Conference? · settled no

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What will Fed Gov Waller say during speech on Artificial Intelligence? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 1, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Nov 13, 2025FraudKalshiNo
Oct 22, 2025FraudKalshiNo
Oct 16, 2025FraudKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Christopher Waller say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Christopher Waller said “Fraud” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 15, 2025.
What is the probability Christopher Waller says “Fraud” next time?
24%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Christopher Waller: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/christopher-waller/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=christopher-waller&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=christopher-waller&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP