Christopher Waller: Remarks, Oct 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Fed Gov Waller say during remarks on AI?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Labor / Job | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Productivity | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Monetary Policy | Yes | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Efficiency | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GDP | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWALLERMENTION-26OCT01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP