Christopher Waller: Interview, Sep 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Labor / Job | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Productivity | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Balance Sheet | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bond Market | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rate Hike / Hike Rate / Raise Rate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Two Percent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Warsh | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Monetary Policy | Yes | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stablecoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWALLERMENTION-26SEP03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP