House of the Dragon
As of Oct 24, 2026, Polymarket has settled 143 word markets on House of the Dragon since 2026, on 50 different words; most reliably said: “Queen” 10+ times (5 of 5).
History Wall
1–40 of 55, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Jun 21episode | Jun 28episode | Jul 5episode | Jul 12episode | Jul 19episode | Jul 26episode | Aug 2episode | Aug 9latest | Last 8 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marriage | Settled no: Marriage, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Marriage, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Marriage, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: Marriage, Jul 12 episode | Settled no: Marriage, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: Marriage, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Marriage, Aug 2 episode | Settled no: Marriage, Aug 9 episode | 1/714% | 1/714% | 26%n=7 from settlement history |
| Council | Settled yes: Council, Jun 21 episode | Settled yes: Council, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Council, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: Council, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Council, Jul 19 episode | Settled yes: Council, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Council, Aug 2 episode | Settled yes: Council, Aug 9 episode | 5/683% | 5/683% | 59%n=6 from settlement history |
| Sword | Settled yes: Sword, Jun 21 episode | Settled yes: Sword, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Sword, Jul 5 episode | Settled no: Sword, Jul 12 episode | Settled yes: Sword, Jul 19 episode | Settled yes: Sword, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Sword, Aug 2 episode | Settled yes: Sword, Aug 9 episode | 5/683% | 5/683% | 63%n=6 from settlement history |
| Kingdom | Settled no: Kingdom, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Kingdom, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Kingdom, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: Kingdom, Jul 12 episode | Settled yes: Kingdom, Jul 19 episode | Settled yes: Kingdom, Jul 26 episode | Settled yes: Kingdom, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Kingdom, Aug 9 episode | 4/667% | 4/667% | 60%n=6 from settlement history |
| Power | Settled no: Power, Jun 21 episode | Settled yes: Power, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Power, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: Power, Jul 12 episode | Settled no: Power, Jul 19 episode | Settled yes: Power, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Power, Aug 2 episode | Settled yes: Power, Aug 9 episode | 4/667% | 4/667% | 57%n=6 from settlement history |
| Raven | Settled yes: Raven, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Raven, Jun 28 episode | Settled yes: Raven, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: Raven, Jul 12 episode | Settled no: Raven, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: Raven, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Raven, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Raven, Aug 9 episode | 3/650% | 3/650% | 40%n=6 from settlement history |
| Storm | Settled no: Storm, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Storm, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Storm, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: Storm, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Storm, Jul 19 episode | Settled yes: Storm, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Storm, Aug 2 episode | Settled yes: Storm, Aug 9 episode | 3/650% | 3/650% | 50%n=6 from settlement history |
| Surrender | Settled yes: Surrender, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Surrender, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Surrender, Jul 5 episode | Settled no: Surrender, Jul 12 episode | Settled no: Surrender, Jul 19 episode | Settled yes: Surrender, Jul 26 episode | Settled yes: Surrender, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Surrender, Aug 9 episode | 3/650% | 3/650% | 50%n=6 from settlement history |
| Conquest | Settled no: Conquest, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Conquest, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Conquest, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: Conquest, Jul 12 episode | Settled yes: Conquest, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: Conquest, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Conquest, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Conquest, Aug 9 episode | 2/633% | 2/633% | 37%n=6 from settlement history |
| Wine | Settled no: Wine, Jun 21 episode | Settled yes: Wine, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Wine, Jul 5 episode | Settled no: Wine, Jul 12 episode | Settled no: Wine, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: Wine, Jul 26 episode | Settled yes: Wine, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Wine, Aug 9 episode | 2/633% | 2/633% | 40%n=6 from settlement history |
| Prayer | Settled no: Prayer, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Prayer, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Prayer, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: Prayer, Jul 12 episode | Settled no: Prayer, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: Prayer, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Prayer, Aug 2 episode | Settled no: Prayer, Aug 9 episode | 1/617% | 1/617% | 28%n=6 from settlement history |
| Prophecy | Settled no: Prophecy, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Prophecy, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Prophecy, Jul 5 episode | Settled no: Prophecy, Jul 12 episode | Settled no: Prophecy, Jul 19 episode | Settled yes: Prophecy, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Prophecy, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Prophecy, Aug 9 episode | 1/617% | 1/617% | 32%n=6 from settlement history |
| Queenevery time 10+ times | Settled yes: Queen 10+ times, Jun 21 episode | Settled yes: Queen 10+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Queen 10+ times, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Queen 10+ times, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Queen 10+ times, Jul 19 episode | Settled yes: Queen 10+ times, Jul 26 episode | Settled yes: Queen 10+ times, Aug 2 episode | Settled yes: Queen 10+ times, Aug 9 episode | 5/5100% | 5/5100% | 68%n=5 from settlement history |
| Mercy | Settled no: Mercy, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Mercy, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Mercy, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: Mercy, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Mercy, Jul 19 episode | Settled yes: Mercy, Jul 26 episode | Settled yes: Mercy, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Mercy, Aug 9 episode | 3/560% | 3/560% | 56%n=5 from settlement history |
| Dragon20+ times | Settled yes: Dragon 20+ times, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Dragon 20+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Dragon 20+ times, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Dragon 20+ times, Jul 12 episode | Settled no: Dragon 20+ times, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: Dragon 20+ times, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Dragon 20+ times, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Dragon 20+ times, Aug 9 episode | 1/520% | 1/520% | 28%n=5 from settlement history |
| Bastard | Settled no: Bastard, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Bastard, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Bastard, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: Bastard, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Bastard, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Bastard, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Bastard, Aug 2 episode | Settled yes: Bastard, Aug 9 episode | 2/450% | 2/450% | 48%n=4 from settlement history |
| Lessonnever said | Settled no: Lesson, Jun 21 episode | Settled no: Lesson, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Lesson, Jul 5 episode | Settled no: Lesson, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Lesson, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: Lesson, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Lesson, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Lesson, Aug 9 episode | 0/40% | 0/40% | 24%n=4 from settlement history |
| King10+ times | Not listed: King 10+ times, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: King 10+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: King 10+ times, Jul 5 episode | Settled yes: King 10+ times, Jul 12 episode | Settled yes: King 10+ times, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: King 10+ times, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: King 10+ times, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: King 10+ times, Aug 9 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 59%n=2 from settlement history |
| Queen20+ times | Not listed: Queen 20+ times, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Queen 20+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Queen 20+ times, Jul 5 episode | Settled no: Queen 20+ times, Jul 12 episode | Settled yes: Queen 20+ times, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Queen 20+ times, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Queen 20+ times, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Queen 20+ times, Aug 9 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 46%n=2 from settlement history |
| Death5+ times | Not listed: Death 5+ times, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Death 5+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Death 5+ times, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Death 5+ times, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Death 5+ times, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: Death 5+ times, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Death 5+ times, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Death 5+ times, Aug 9 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 29%n=2 from settlement history |
| God5+ times | Not listed: God 5+ times, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: God 5+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: God 5+ times, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: God 5+ times, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: God 5+ times, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: God 5+ times, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: God 5+ times, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: God 5+ times, Aug 9 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 29%n=2 from settlement history |
| Grace20+ times | Not listed: Grace 20+ times, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Grace 20+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Grace 20+ times, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Grace 20+ times, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Grace 20+ times, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: Grace 20+ times, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Grace 20+ times, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Grace 20+ times, Aug 9 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 29%n=2 from settlement history |
| Jail | Not listed: Jail, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Jail, Jun 28 episode | Settled no: Jail, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Jail, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Jail, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Jail, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Jail, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Jail, Aug 9 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 29%n=2 from settlement history |
| Soldier | Not listed: Soldier, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Soldier, Jun 28 episode | Settled no: Soldier, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Soldier, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Soldier, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Soldier, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Soldier, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Soldier, Aug 9 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 29%n=2 from settlement history |
| Treason | Not listed: Treason, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Treason, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Treason, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Treason, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Treason, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Treason, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: Treason, Aug 2 episode | Settled no: Treason, Aug 9 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 29%n=2 from settlement history |
| War8+ times | Not listed: War 8+ times, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: War 8+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: War 8+ times, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: War 8+ times, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: War 8+ times, Jul 19 episode | Settled no: War 8+ times, Jul 26 episode | Settled no: War 8+ times, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: War 8+ times, Aug 9 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 29%n=2 from settlement history |
| Battle | Not listed: Battle, Jun 21 episode | Settled yes: Battle, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Battle, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Battle, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Battle, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Battle, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Battle, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Battle, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Betray | Not listed: Betray, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Betray, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Betray, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Betray, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Betray, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Betray, Jul 26 episode | Settled yes: Betray, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Betray, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Brother | Not listed: Brother, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Brother, Jun 28 episode | Settled yes: Brother, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Brother, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Brother, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Brother, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Brother, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Brother, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Castle | Not listed: Castle, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Castle, Jun 28 episode | Settled yes: Castle, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Castle, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Castle, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Castle, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Castle, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Castle, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Dinner | Not listed: Dinner, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Dinner, Jun 28 episode | Settled yes: Dinner, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Dinner, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Dinner, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Dinner, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Dinner, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Dinner, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Dragon15+ times | Not listed: Dragon 15+ times, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Dragon 15+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Dragon 15+ times, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Dragon 15+ times, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Dragon 15+ times, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Dragon 15+ times, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Dragon 15+ times, Aug 2 episode | Settled yes: Dragon 15+ times, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| King5+ times | Not listed: King 5+ times, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: King 5+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: King 5+ times, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: King 5+ times, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: King 5+ times, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: King 5+ times, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: King 5+ times, Aug 2 episode | Settled yes: King 5+ times, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Promise | Not listed: Promise, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Promise, Jun 28 episode | Settled yes: Promise, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Promise, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Promise, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Promise, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Promise, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Promise, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Queen20+ times | Not listed: Queen +20, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Queen +20, Jun 28 episode | Settled yes: Queen +20, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Queen +20, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Queen +20, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Queen +20, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Queen +20, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Queen +20, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ship5+ times | Settled yes: Ship 5+ times, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Ship 5+ times, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Ship 5+ times, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Ship 5+ times, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Ship 5+ times, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Ship 5+ times, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Ship 5+ times, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Ship 5+ times, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Sorry | Not listed: Sorry, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Sorry, Jun 28 episode | Settled yes: Sorry, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Sorry, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Sorry, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Sorry, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Sorry, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Sorry, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Traitor | Not listed: Traitor, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Traitor, Jun 28 episode | Not listed: Traitor, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Traitor, Jul 12 episode | Settled yes: Traitor, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Traitor, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Traitor, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Traitor, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Truth | Not listed: Truth, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Truth, Jun 28 episode | Settled yes: Truth, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Truth, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Truth, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Truth, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Truth, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Truth, Aug 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Angry | Not listed: Angry, Jun 21 episode | Not listed: Angry, Jun 28 episode | Settled no: Angry, Jul 5 episode | Not listed: Angry, Jul 12 episode | Not listed: Angry, Jul 19 episode | Not listed: Angry, Jul 26 episode | Not listed: Angry, Aug 2 episode | Not listed: Angry, Aug 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 8Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said during the final episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3? | no transcript | 12 | 8 yes · 4 no | – |
| Aug 2, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said during the seventh episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3? | no transcript | 21 | 6 yes · 15 no | – |
| Jul 26, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said during the sixth episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3? | no transcript | 20 | 9 yes · 11 no | – |
| Jul 19, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said during the fifth episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3? | no transcript | 16 | 6 yes · 10 no | – |
| Jul 12, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said during the fourth episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3? | no transcript | 20 | 11 yes · 9 no | – |
| Jul 5, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said during the third episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3? | no transcript | 18 | 8 yes · 10 no | – |
| Jun 28, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said during the second episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3? | no transcript | 18 | 6 yes · 12 no | – |
| Jun 21, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will be said during the first episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3? | no transcript | 18 | 7 yes · 11 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “House of the Dragon: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/house-of-the-dragon (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/house-of-the-dragon · words: /api/v1/history?entity=house-of-the-dragon · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP